DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070058
SWODY1
SPC AC 070056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2007

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD AND NERN-ERN NEB
THROUGH MUCH OF IA TO NWRN IL...

..SERN SD/NERN-ERN NEB ESEWD THROUGH MUCH OF IA/FAR NWRN IL...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/18Z MODEL DATA INDICATED WESTERLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF
U.S. STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.
ASCENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF...AT LEAST...THE LEADING IMPULSE AND
WEAKER IMPULSES TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MO
VALLEY TONIGHT SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
FROM SERN SD/ERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF IA INTO NWRN IL.

AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NRN OH
WWD THROUGH NRN IL INTO IA/ERN NEB. FROM ERN NEB...ONE BOUNDARY
EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH NWRN KS INTO CO. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY...
LIKELY ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG SRN EXTENT OF
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS LOCATED OVER NERN NEB/NRN IA INTO MN...
EXTENDED FROM ERN NEB NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD. A THIRD FRONT WAS
MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH CENTRAL ND AND WRN SD THIS EVENING.
EARLY EVENING MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1667.

TSTMS...THOUGH WIDELY SPACED AT THIS TIME...THAT DEVELOP INTO THE
MID-LATE EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IA/ERN NEB
NWWD INTO CENTRAL SD WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL IS DUE TO MODERATE-VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
SAMPLED BY 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO
EXIST WITH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S TONIGHT...THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SWLY LLJ
INTO ERN NEB/IA WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE MCS IS POSSIBLE. THUS...
OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK EWD ACROSS MUCH OF IA TO NWRN IL
FOR POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY.

.PETERS.. 08/07/2007

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