SWODY1
SPC AC 110040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...
..NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
SEVERAL DISTINCT CONVECTIVE MODES ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING. EARLIER WARM ADVECTION-TYPE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED INTO NWRN MN...APPARENTLY AIDED BY A WEAK
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS LIFTING INTO NWRN ONTARIO. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THE ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT. A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IS
PROGRESSING NEWD TOWARDS THE GGW AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
AND BOUNDARY LAYER IS INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY
COMPONENT NEAR THE ND BORDER. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER MT BEFORE GREATLY EXPANDING IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
A COLD POOL-INDUCED DAMAGING WIND EVENT COULD EMERGE.
OTHER DISCRETE SUPERCELL-TYPE STRUCTURES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
ND/SD BORDER FROM EMMONS/SIOUX COUNTIES IN ND INTO CORSON COUNTY SD.
THIS CONVECTION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY ALONG INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM FRONT. WITH TIME
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD...ESPECIALLY AS
LLJ INCREASES INTO ERN ND LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. FARTHER
SOUTH...HOT SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
HAVE AFFECTIVELY REMOVED THE CAP AND ALLOWED PARCELS TO FREELY
CONVECT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LBF STRONGLY SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER FOR SOME TIME AS VEERING PROFILES AND SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE FOR SUSTAINING SLOW-MOVING SEVERE UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
..NC...
A SMALL AREA OF BUOYANCY ACROSS COASTAL NC HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED.
SEWD-MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...CENTERED OVER DUPLIN
COUNTY...WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT THAT STRONG IT APPEARS SOME
MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE MAINTAINED UNTIL INSTABILITY WEAKENS.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.
.DARROW.. 08/11/2007
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