SWODY1
SPC AC 010050
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007
VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS INTERIOR NW AND NRN
ROCKIES...
..SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
PRONOUNCED RIDGING FROM AZ TO NRN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...BROAD AREA
OF TROUGHING -- CONTAINING SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONES -- WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FROM OFFSHORE
CAROLINAS SWWD OVER FL PANHANDLE...WWD ALONG GULF COAST AND SWWD
TOWARD BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN QUE AND NEW ENGLAND.
FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN 23Z MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND VWP DATA OVER W-CENTRAL PORTIONS WA/ORE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD LIFT NEWD OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES IN 01/09-01/12Z TIME FRAME. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM S-CENTRAL BC SWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL WA THEN SWWD
OVER SWRN ORE -- WILL MOVE EWD INTO NRN ROCKIES WHILE MOVING SEWD
AND WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN ORE AND NWRN CA.
..INLAND NWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME POTENTIALLY SVR WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
-- ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE.
REF WW 664 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR NEAR-TERM
FCST REASONING. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR FROM NERN ORE/ERN WA NEWD.
WELL-MIXED/PRE-STORM BOUNDARY LAYER -- AS SAMPLED WELL BY 00Z OTX
RAOB -- AND ACCOMPANYING STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
GUST POTENTIAL AS FAR NE AS MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID AND WRN MT...UNTIL
SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC SFC COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
..CENTRAL/SWRN AZ...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS AND MOVE WWD/SWWD OVER DEEP...STRONGLY HEATED AND WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK PER
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...PULSE/MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STG/POSSIBLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TUS RAOB INDICATES WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WITH SMALLER BUOYANCY WITH SWD EXTENT.
.EDWARDS.. 09/01/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment