SWODY1
SPC AC 230100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...
..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA...
EARLY THIS EVENING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN KS SWWD
THROUGH NERN CO THEN NWWD INTO SERN WY. ELY POST FRONTAL FLOW HAS
ADVECTED 60S DEWPOINTS WWD TO JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM NERN CO
NWWD INTO SWRN NEB AND SERN WY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EWD INTO WRN WY WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE FARTHER SWD TOWARD
WRN AND CNTRL CO. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
NERN CO NWD THROUGH SERN WY AND ARE SPREADING EWD. THIS AREA EXISTS
ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH ELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 700 MB RESULTING IN 35 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO
BE OBSERVED...AND SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER E CNTRL CO
TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS THEY ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET.
SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES...OVERALL THREAT MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATER THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF
NEB AND SD ALONG NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...
STORMS PERSIST ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN LOWER MI
SWWD THROUGH NWRN IL. ACTIVITY EXISTS S OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER
FLOW WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES. THE MOST
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
.DIAL.. 08/23/2007
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