DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011624
SWODY1
SPC AC 011622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN INTO NEB/NORTHWEST
KS...

..MN TO NEB/NORTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ARCING
FROM NORTHWEST MN TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD AT
MIDDAY...WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IN
THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR.

STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THESE PERSISTENT STORMS/CLOUD COVER
COMPLICATE THE DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT ACROSS MN. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING STORMS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS
MN/EASTERN SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENT
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB. GIVEN AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN TO
2500-3000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND NORTHWEST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESIDE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERE IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE MODEST...SOMEWHAT STRONGER HIGH
LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 6 KM SHOULD HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

..ELSEWHERE...
THE BROAD MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SEWD
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL.

.GUYER/MCCARTHY.. 08/01/2007

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