SWODY1
SPC AC 020052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS MN TO NEB/KS...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING CNTRL CANADA ATTM WITH ASSOCIATED
CYCLONE UNDERGOING OCCLUSION OVER SWRN HUDSON BAY. TRIPLE POINT LOW
APPEARS TO BE NEARING JAMES BAY WITH SHARP COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...TO SWRN MN...TO NEB...TO ERN CO. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA TO SRN QUEBEC.
DESPITE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE BORDER...CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH LATE EVENING. AT PRESENT...FRONTAL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
AIDING STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN WHERE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS DEPICT MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND/HAIL EVENTS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
FARTHER SW...FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE GENERALLY SWD INTO VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB/KS TONIGHT. LIFT ALONG THE
PRIMARY FRONT/WIND SHIFT...IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS RESULTING FROM STORM
MERGERS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 30KT/ DO APPEAR IN
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LOW/ISOLATED AND TIED PRIMARILY TO THERMODYNAMIC AND STORM
SCALE FORCING. AN MCS OR TWO MAY EMERGE FROM ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AND SPREAD/PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD/SWWD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
..NRN NEW ENGLAND...
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING CANADA MAY
SUSTAIN STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OVER SRN QUEBEC. CAPPED AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC WAS DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD AND FUELING
ONGOING STORMS WHICH MAY BE EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PER
LATEST SATELLITE AND CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO
PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
INFLOW INTO THIS CONVECTION FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION
FORECAST BY LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THE REGION TONIGHT.
..SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL PULSE/MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ONGOING IN
EXTENSIVE WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM EAST TO WEST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
.CARBIN.. 08/02/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment