SWODY2
SPC AC 310541
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN ND AND NWRN MN...
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON
FRIDAY WILL GLANCE OFF THE STRONG SONORAN RIDGE AND TRANSLATE INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY SATURDAY AFTN. SWD EXTENT OF THE WEAK
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SKIRT ACROSS ND AND FAR NW MN SATURDAY
AFTN/EVE. A ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT FROM THE ERN
PLAINS INTO NWRN MN...ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN
ND. MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SVR TSTMS WILL BE THE WEAK
SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH THE PRIMARY TSTM INITIATION ZONE LIKELY ACROSS
MANITOBA. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD SWWD
INTO ERN ND DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN A STORM...30-35 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ISOLD STRONGER STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL MN ALONG THE AXIS OF AN ACCELERATING SWLY LLJ. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE CLOUD LAYER TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..SWRN STATES...
UPR HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER SRN NV INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NELY FLOW
REGIME INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF AZ AND NM. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SRN CO...CNTRL NM AND NRN AZ SATURDAY
AFTN AND MOVE WSWWD INTO THE VLYS/PLATEAUS DURING THE EVENING.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP ENELY FLOW THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL YIELD FAST MOVING MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE THREAT
FOR ISOLD SVR/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SCNTRL VLYS
OF AZ.
..LWR TN INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON
SATURDAY. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONGEST HEATING ON SATURDAY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
NRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY...FAVORING A WEAK INVERTED-TROUGH
FROM THE LWR TN INTO THE LWR MS VLY. ENHANCED ELY FLOW IN THE
LWR-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS WEAKNESS MAY AUGMENT
W AND SW PROPAGATION OF MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS. ISOLD STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.
.RACY.. 08/31/2007
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