SWODY3
SPC AC 010750
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN STATES...
..NERN STATES...
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE NERN STATES EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AREA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
SERN QUEBEC SWWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -10C AT 500 MB WILL
SPREAD EWD OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NE OF REGION WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER...BELT OF WLY 25-35 KT FLOW
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG
SRN PERIPHERY OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AROUND 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..NRN ROCKIES THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ADVANCED INTO SERN CANADA AND
THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA
TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH NEB AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF SD AND NEB. WHERE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING DEVELOPS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD...AND POSSIBLY ALONG
RETREATING BOUNDARY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH AXIS
VEERING TO WLY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
.DIAL.. 08/01/2007
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