MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1625

ACUS11 KWNS 020206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020206
KSZ000-COZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN KS...EXTREME E-CENTRAL/SERN
CO.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 020206Z - 020500Z

LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM HEAVIEST CORES
AMONG TSTMS WIDELY SCATTERED ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THIS REGION. IN
ADDITION TO NEAR-TERM HEAVY RAIN THREATS INVOF KS/CO BORDER AND
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL KS BETWEEN SLN-HUT-GBD...ADDITIONAL
MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THOSE OVER SWRN KS.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD APPROXIMATELY 30 KT
OVER ERN CO -- E OF LIC -- LINKING WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
CONTINUES ESEWD TOWARD GBD. CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING SWWD ACROSS
PORTIONS LOGAN/WALLACE COUNTIES KS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY CO INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MERGE WITH ERRATICALLY MOVING MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS GREELEY/WALLACE COUNTIES KS...AND
CHEYENNE/KIOWA COUNTIES CO...THROUGH 03Z. ANOTHER PERSISTENT
CLUSTER OF TSTMS BETWEEN RSL-SLN SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING
GENERALLY SWD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY ACROSS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...IN AREA OF STRONGEST
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW JUST ABOVE SFC...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH
ZONE OF MAXIMIZED 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN RUC GUIDANCE.
PROSPECTIVE INFLOW LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH NEARLY
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-MID 60S F DEW POINTS ON HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR 70 F
OVER CENTRAL KS...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 5000-1000 J/KG FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF PRE-STORM REGION...WHERE PW AROUND 1/5 INCH
SHOULD REMAIN COMMON.

.EDWARDS.. 08/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39160280 38870189 38570014 38509891 38779830 38839764
38149761 37509886 37330053 37960256 38260314 38680339

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