SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062212
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-062345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CO...KS...NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062212Z - 062345Z
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO AND WRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND PRODUCE
GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...OUTFLOW WINDS. RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL SUGGESTS THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES...
COUPLED WITH INTENSE HEATING AND REMOVAL OF THE CAP...HAVE LED TO A
NUMBER OF ROBUST TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. RECENT RUC SNDGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE ABUNDANT MLCAPE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 30-40F. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR AND
LACK OF LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING MORE PERSISTENT AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL FORCING TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND WEAK
SHEAR.../AOB 25KT/...DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND
WELL BEYOND SUNSET. THUS...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
.CARBIN.. 08/06/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
39919988 38330093 37330274 37230436 38030502 38550510
38970522 39230517 39460495 39530465 39520434 39520317
40230137 40540093 40580061
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