SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072330
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-080100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MT...ND...WY...SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565...566...
VALID 072330Z - 080100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
565...566...CONTINUES.
ACTIVE STORMS ACROSS SVR TSTM WATCHES 565 & 566 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BOTH HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WINDS. ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED
ACTIVITY MAY BE INCREASING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT SURGING
EAST INTO SERN MT ATTM.
RELATIVELY NARROW N-S WARM SECTOR EXISTS AHEAD OF DRYLINE ROUGHLY
SITUATED FROM THE ND/SD BORDER AREAS EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.
STORMS IN THIS AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
WITH MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING SUPPLIED BY UPPER SHORT WAVE
FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL UPSLOPE/SSELY FLOW. AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF
RESIDUAL WARM FRONT...ACROSS CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS...WAS STABLE AND THIS
WOULD INDICATE THAT STORM ACTIVITY MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
INTENSITY EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCHES.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED HIGH-BASED
STORM OVER NRN BIG HORN COUNTY MT...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT OVER ROSEBUD COUNTY. GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY
SUBCLOUD AIR MASS WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1800 J/KG...DAMAGING DRY
MICROBURST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
.CARBIN.. 08/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
48040648 48010401 48990404 48940136 48500137 48550109
47830094 47850056 47100069 47280181 46970172 46970214
45500197 45500143 44960139 45010107 42940108 42920410
43470414 43460599 45950621 47160611
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