SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102323
NCZ000-110100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580...
VALID 102323Z - 110100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 580
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z...WITH THREAT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEAR OR JUST AFTER 01Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WW 580 WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 01Z.
A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS ERN NC...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW FROM JONES/ONSLOW COUNTIES
WWD TO WAYNE/SAMPSON COUNTIES. THIS SWD MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
COLLIDE WITH THE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
SRN NC...AND THE STORM/BOUNDARY MERGER PROCESS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. BY 01Z...THE OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND THE IMPACT OF PRIOR CONVECTION. A LOCALIZED THREAT
FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY PERSIST JUST BEYOND THE 01Z SCHEDULED
EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 580 IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY FAY TO
FLO...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE WATCH.
.THOMPSON.. 08/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
34327742 34457825 34617892 34937933 35247905 35447813
35357736 35117664 34787646 34497723
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