MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1726

ACUS11 KWNS 112331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112331
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-120130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT SAT AUG 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MN INCLUDING ARROWHEAD...WRN
LS...ISLE ROYALE OF MI...EXTREME NRN WI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112331Z - 120130Z

ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING GRADUALLY INVOF SFC COLD FRONT FROM
NEAR BRD NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE COUNTY MN...AND OVER BOUNDARY WATERS
AREA OF MN/ONT BORDER. NEW WW 586 COVERS AREA FROM AITKIN/CARLTON
COUNTIES MN AND NRN TIER WI COUNTIES SWD. SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS
ARROWHEAD APPEARS MORE LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND MAY NOT REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN LAKE COUNTY SWWD THROUGH
STC AREA...THEN SWWD OVER E-CENTRAL/SWRN SD. LAKE BREEZE ZONE IS
EVIDENT ALONG N SHORE BETWEEN DLH-TWM...THEN GRADUALLY EXTENDING TO
SEVERAL NM INLAND FARTHER NEWD THROUGH COOK COUNTY.
CONTINUED/AMBIENT SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO N
SHORE. NARROW TONGUE OF FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE ...CLOSELY TIED TO SFC MOISTURE/THETAE AXIS
CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S-LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES IN CORRIDOR NW OF LAKE
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME UNTIL
FROPA...WHEREUPON SHARP DROP IN BUOYANCY WILL ENSUE. AS CONVECTION
MOVES ESEWD INTO PREFRONTAL PLUME DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE. LAYER OF
COOL/STABLE LAKE AIR SE OF THIS BOUNDARY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND DIMINISHING OVER LS AND ISLE ROYALE REGION...BUT HAIL STILL A
THREAT.

.EDWARDS.. 08/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

46779335 47799192 48179106 48229086 48119075 48109051
48109006 47998995 47998977 47988958 47978952 47998924
48268863 48288829 48228816 46769034 46589154 46609239

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