MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

ACUS11 KWNS 160401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160401
OHZ000-INZ000-160530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...NWRN AND WCNTRL OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 600...

VALID 160401Z - 160530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 600 CONTINUES.

LARGE-SCALE ROTATING COMMA HEAD TSTM COMPLEX WITH AN EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL ALONG THE SRN END CONTINUES TO MOVE ROUGHLY 295/40KT
ACROSS NCNTRL IND. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE APPEARS TO BE
FAVORING A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ESEWD TOWARD THE KFWA REGION
AND THEN INTO NWRN OH. THE SUPERCELL HAS PRODUCED HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF WALNUTS IN PULASKI COUNTY IND AND A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
MARSHALL COUNTY. DMGG WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN NUMEROUS
AREAS.

KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BOTH A FORWARD
AND BACKWARD PROPAGATING MCS. VWP FROM IWX CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PROFILE AND THE LOT RADAR VWP SUGGESTS
AT LEAST 35 KTS OF MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW. GIVEN WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM AND THE INCREASING WSWLY FLOW IN THE
H95-H85 LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SWATH OF DMGG WINDS/ISOLD
TORNADOES ASSOCD WITH BOW ECHOES/SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE FORT
WAYNE-BLUFFTON REGIONS BETWEEN 0430-0500Z AND INTO NWRN/WCNTRL OH
AFTER 0530Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING THIS LINEAR MCS...CELLS WILL
BACKBUILD INTO THE WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NWRN IND...THEN TRAIN
SEWD TOWARD THE FORT WAYNE REGION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LASTLY...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED TSTMS ALSO HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS NWRN-NCNTRL OH. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE RISKS FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS
FAR N AND E AS KMFD-KMNN-KFDY FOR A FEW HOURS. BUT...PRIMARY TSTM
COMPLEX SHOULD PASS JUST S OF THESE REGIONS.

.RACY.. 08/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...LOT...

41738689 41478272 40688262 40108341 40318468 40978704
41538712

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.