SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172339
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-180145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT/FAR WESTERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172339Z - 180145Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT INTO FAR WESTERN WY. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. WHILE A SEVERE WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID
LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA TRANSITIONING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ID INTO
SOUTHWEST MT/WESTERN WY. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC/LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN VICINITY OF
EASTERN ID INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT/WESTERN WY...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN STRONG PER VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. AMPLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER
ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FROM
EASTERN ID/SOUTHWEST MT INTO WESTERN WY. AS SAMPLED BY 12Z REGIONAL
OBSERVED RAOBS AND POCATELLO WSR-88D VWP DATA...MODERATELY STRONG
WIND FIELDS /40 KT 0-6 KM/ IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
.GUYER.. 08/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...
46681256 46341113 43870961 42311006 41951211 42391316
44461313
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