SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200146
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-200245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200146Z - 200245Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM OF WW 618.
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN 20/00Z RAPID CITY RAOB...AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAY ULTIMATELY MINIMIZE
SEVERE THREAT. BUT...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. IF LIFT BECOMES SUFFICIENT TO
FORCE MOIST NEAR SURFACE PARCELS TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION...
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME /DUE
PRIMARILY TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT/ WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAINLY WITH RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL.
.KERR.. 08/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
45560417 46420392 45450258 44350208 43680126 43000145
43350262 43920338 44810391
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