MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1852

ACUS11 KWNS 222333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222333
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE NEB...FAR NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637...

VALID 222333Z - 230100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637
CONTINUES.

A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF WW 637 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
EXIST ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND FAR NRN KS.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS SRN NEB TO NEAR THE IA-MO STATE-LINE. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS WILL FUEL THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST PROFILER
SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN NEB HAS ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
GRADUAL VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
SUPERCELL THREAT BUT SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS BRIEFLY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN NEB...A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION
PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT IN THAT AREA.

.BROYLES.. 08/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

39549793 39529960 39129961 39090143 39960148 39980130
40690135 40680121 41350128 41360071 41710072 41729918
42089921 42049831 41789832 41709829 41449829 41489811
41529798 41529782 41749782 41749655 42049656 42049627
41959619 41909613 41849615 41869509 41609512 41599505
41509506 41509515 41169514 41169491 40599492 40589580
40479568 40409565 40369561 40289560 40249553 40209543
40139541 40129538 40089539 40069541 40069538 40069534
40029531 39989528 40029791

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