SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222351
MIZ000-230145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222351Z - 230145Z
ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS OVER SERN WI AND SRN LAKE MI WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS INTO SWRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE LINE. IN ADDITION...HVY RAIN WITH HRLY RATES OVER 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS OVER SWRN LOWER MI...WITH OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE CONNECTIVE LINE OVER SERN WI HAS BECOME ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR AND HAS ACCELERATED WHILE
MOVING OUT INTO SRN LK MI. THE RECENT MKX VWP DATA SHOWS AROUND 35
KTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 3-6 KM FROM BEHIND THE LINE WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE LINES FORWARD MOTION /AROUND 30 KTS/ AS IT MOVES INTO
SWRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE..AND POTENTIAL FOR CELL AND LINE MERGERS TO
OCCUR...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SWRN INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MI. IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE
LINE...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ALONG THE SRN GUST FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
MORE PARALLEL LINE ORIENTATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CELL
TRAINING/HVY RAINFALL BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
VERY HIGH PW/S INDICATE OVER 2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY.
.CROSBIE.. 08/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
43848388 43738632 43238687 42728685 42548687 42098602
42148511 42358382 43078286 43658320
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