SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240018
KSZ000-COZ000-240215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...
VALID 240018Z - 240215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643
CONTINUES.
SEVERAL SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD AROUND 25 KTS
ACROSS ECENTRAL/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A MARGINAL SVR
THREAT MAY EXTEND EAST OF WW 643 ACROSS FAR ECENTRAL CO/NWRN
KS...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA ATTM.
SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY PLACES THE MAIN STATIONARY FRONT OVER
SERN CO FROM NEAR PUB ESEWD TO NEAR LAA. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WAS SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STG-SVR TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE COS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD AROUND 25 KTS AND SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL
OVER ECENTRAL CO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL
THREAT FURTHER EAST OVER CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN
ECENTRAL CO AND POSSIBLY FAR NWRN KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AND SVR THREAT. FURTHER SOUTH...MODEST HEATING/SLOPES FLOW OVER SERN
CO /INVOF PUB AREA/ SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE. STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WRN CO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SVR HAIL/WIND WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
.CROSBIE.. 08/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
39990116 39960272 39540424 39470460 39020517 38550541
37590545 37120504 37010413 37050201 38290201 38890103
39680094
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