SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290117
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-290215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...
VALID 290117Z - 290215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT
COUPLE HOURS MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL IA. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS ACTIVITY MOVES DEEPER INTO ERN IA. UNLESS
TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...A WW EAST OF WW 661 IS CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED.
STORMS CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY FROM SRN
WI SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB. THE MOST ORGANIZED PART OF THE LINE IS NOW
MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL IA JUST NORTH OF DSM AT AROUND 40 KT. THIS
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS EXHIBITED A BOWING STRUCTURE ALONG WITH
ROTATION ALONG NRN END OF THE BOW. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AXIS OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY. DAVENPORT 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IA WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 1400 J/KG AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR. STORMS MAY
PERSIST EWD THROUGH ERN IA. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.
.DIAL.. 08/29/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
42339273 42609088 42069027 41679081 41379273 40449565
40559649 41219503
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