MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922

ACUS11 KWNS 301820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301820
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1922
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...MA...VT...NH...ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301820Z - 302015Z

STRONG TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SPREADING GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...A FEW
CONVECTIVE LINES OR CLUSTERS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. IF IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR TWO
LONGER-LIVED AND ROBUST STORM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE
FRONT...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PROCEEDS.

ISOLATED CELLS HAVE ERUPTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM SW/CNTRL PA
NEWD ACROSS ERN NY...AND OVER NCNTRL VT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WAS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM SW TO NE WITH MLCAPE OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF PA TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER VT. STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DOES EXIST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
NY/NEW ENGLAND AND APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE WELL-ORGANIZED
BOW NOW TRACKING TOWARD ERN ME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORM
CLUSTERS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NY AND VT COULD EVOLVE IN A
SIMILAR FASHION. HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SWWD FROM ERN NY...WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF
20-25KT.

WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN NY/VT CONTINUING TO INCREASE AMIDST
MODEST INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND FORCING...A WATCH APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

.CARBIN.. 08/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

44307361 44727084 44796958 43437098 41517527 40537736
39887863 39837970 40648014 42657664 43677552

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