SWODY1
SPC AC 040501
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE S CENTRAL
CONUS AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND...THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WILL BE THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AND CA TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING THIS WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE A MORE W-E FRONT PERSISTS
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE HIGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE SW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...AS UPPER JET SPREADS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MARGINAL /AOB 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE FOR THE MOST PART/...DEGREE
OF SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WHICH DO INITIATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAY EXHIBIT SOME ORGANIZATION. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR MARGINAL
HAIL.
.GOSS/GRAMS.. 09/04/2007
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