SWODY1
SPC AC 150001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
..CAROLINAS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN VERY MOIST PLUME ALONG
FAVORED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM NRN SC INTO CNTRL NC.
MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AT TIMES...A FEW OF
WHICH HAVE PRODUCED ISOLATED TORNADOES. IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF TORNADO
ACTIVITY. WITH TIME NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL
HAVE AN ADVERSE AFFECT REGARDING SUPERCELL STORM MODE...LIKELY
LEADING TO MORE MULTICELL-TYPE CLUSTERING WHICH SHOULD THEN RESULT
IN MAINLY GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH...MORE
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..UPSTATE NY...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOW ACTING ON NRN EDGE OF MOIST WARM SECTOR
FROM WEST OF BGM TO ERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE...WELL AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. GREATEST RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. AS COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH THIS ZONE OF INSTABILITY IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.DARROW.. 09/15/2007
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