SWODY1
SPC AC 101939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NRN THROUGH CNTRL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THEN
NEWD THROUGH SRN AND ERN KS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE INITIATING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM WITHIN THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGIME
AND OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST ALONG SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER 25-30 KT 500 MB FLOW BENEATH NELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS IS RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN NM.
THESE STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 7 TO 7.5
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH SWD
EXTENT INTO NM AND EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. OVERALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
.DIAL.. 09/10/2007
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