SWODY1
SPC AC 101237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2007
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
ADVANCE OF BC RIDGE E INTO THE CANADIAN HI PLNS...AND SEWD
AMPLIFICATION OF MB TROUGH...WILL KEEP WY/DAKOTAS IMPULSE
PROGRESSIVE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO WI/IA THIS
EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER S...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO SHEAR W/E ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN
AS RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NRN MEXICO.
AT LWR LVLS...WRN PART OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WSW FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE TN VLY INTO TX WILL BE REINFORCED BY HI
PLNS COOL AIR SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH WY/DAKOTAS TROUGH.
..NM INTO W TX...
MID/HI LVL TSTM DEBRIS ON NRN FRINGE OF MEXICAN RIDGE LIKELY WILL
LIMIT SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF NM AND W TX TODAY.
BUT EVEN WITH MODERATE HEATING...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW TO MID LVL
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF SBCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG.
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM AND FAR W TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER
INVOF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SURGE OVER ERN NM AND THE TX S PLNS.
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP. COUPLED WITH
25-30 KT WNWLY CLOUD-LYR SHEAR ON SRN SIDE OF GRT BASIN UPR
SYSTEM...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WHEREVER
HEATING AND ASCENT DUE TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS ARE
MAXIMIZED. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT.
HAIL...HOWEVER...MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL NM WHERE
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 09/10/2007
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