SWODY2
SPC AC 010543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SWRN DESERTS...
UPR HIGH WILL REMAIN IN POSITION OVER SRN NV ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPR
LOW MIGRATING WWD OVER W TX. MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
ENHANCED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF DRY
AIR ADVECTING SWWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THUS...
DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SVR PATTERN ACROSS NM/AZ...AN OBVIOUS
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LESS-THAN-IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THIS SITUATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTMS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A FEW STORMS MIGRATING INTO THE LWR DESERTS AND
WEAKENING.
..FAR NRN PLAINS...
LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES...
WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE TO ONTARIO BY SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THIS
IMPULSE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...UPR
MS VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS. TAIL-END OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN
A SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES. MODEST SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PROFILES ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY OF
THE NORTH WITH LATE NIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
.RACY.. 09/01/2007
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