SWODY2
SPC AC 011711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES
AND CANADA WITH PRIMARY...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE NERN PACIFIC. IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...UPPER
HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER UT WHILE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATES
WWD ACROSS TX. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS...PRIOR TO LIFTING SLOWLY NWD
AS A WARM FRONT.
..ND...
QUASI-ZONAL...MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ SUNDAY
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME N OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER ERN MT/WRN ND SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LLJ VEERS.
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT COUPLED WITH RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...EVEN FOR ELEVATED PARCELS.
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER ERN ND WITH STORMS LIKELY BASED ABOVE THE WARM LAYER
WHERE ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SOME HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...THOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
..NM/AZ...
DIURNAL TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SUNDAY OVER FAVORED TERRAIN AS
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.
.MEAD.. 09/01/2007
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