SWODY2
SPC AC 070550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2007
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
ENERGETIC NRN STREAM TO PREVAIL ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE NRN TIER
OF THE CONUS...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FAST/FLATLY-CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD FORECAST TO CROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN
THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SWD OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE PC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
IS FORECAST WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THE PLAINS/NORTHEAST...WITH A
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...MAIN COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE REMAINING MORE OR LESS
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE OH VALLEY WSWWD ACROSS THE KS/OK REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FRONT -- TRAILING FROM A WEAK LOW MOVING
ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTERNOON -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..NRN KS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO SERN SD/FAR SWRN MN/WRN IA...
WITH MAIN COLD FRONT -- AND THUS MORE FAVORABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR --
S OF THIS REGION...ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER...WHILE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS NEB...STRONGER WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT -- WITH HIGHER-MAGNITUDE FLOW
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE NEB/SD BORDER. THIS SUGGESTS AN OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT ONLY MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EVOLVE/SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
REGION SSWWD INTO PARTS OF NRN KS...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FORECAST.
..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
POST-FRONTAL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND INTO NERN NM/SERN CO BY AFTERNOON...AS COLD FRONT
REMAINS S OF THIS AREA. WHILE ELYS AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MODEST
/AROUND 20 KT/ WLYS AT MID LEVELS MAY RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRECLUDE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION THIS
FORECAST.
.GOSS.. 09/07/2007
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