SWODY3
SPC AC 260731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2007
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS THE LARGE WRN U.S. AND ERN U.S. TROUGHS CONTINUE EWD AND
A RIDGE CROSSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EAST.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STOUT CAP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL W OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE CAP...LITTLE IF ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM -- AT LEAST PRIOR TO SUNSET -- AS
CAPPING SHOULD PREVAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 60-PLUS KT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF NEB/IA. WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW STRONGER ELEVATED CELLS...POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF A THREAT AREA ATTM.
GREATER SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST IF A STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER S DURING THE DAY...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE A CONDITIONAL 5%
THREAT AREA OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL NEB.
.GOSS.. 09/26/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment