SWOD48
SPC AC 010851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2007
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION...
00Z GFS HAS BECOME MORE IN LINE WITH THE RECENT FEW RUNS OF THE
ECMWF IN DEVELOPING A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
NRN PACIFIC BASIN WILL BODILY MOVE EWD INTO THE NWRN STATES BY
TUESDAY...THEN SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WED...THU AND
FRI...THOUGH THE ULTIMATE RATE-OF-WEAKENING IS STILL IN QUESTION.
IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE
GRTLKS...UPR MS VLY...AND THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE FAR S PLAINS
CURRENTLY SHOULD SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BENEATH A FORMIDABLE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH GIVEN THE WEAKENING TENDENCY OF THE UPR
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL INHIBITION LAYER...SET-UP APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR POST-FRONTAL STG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATHER
THAN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...PARTICULARLY WITH VARIOUS
TUTT LOW SIGNATURES/POTENTIAL REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONES ENTERING THE
PICTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CONUS.
.RACY.. 09/01/2007
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