SWOD48
SPC AC 080857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AS INSTABILITY SHOULD IN GENERAL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE
SRN CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY 7-8 TIME PERIOD -- I.E. FRI. SEPT. 14
THROUGH SAT. SEPT. 15. THE INITIAL FRONT WHICH SHOULD HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE S CENTRAL U.S. BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS -- ALONG WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS/ROCKIES...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN PLAINS.
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO...THIS
MODELS DEPICTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS. THOUGH THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...OVERALL DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT REMAINS IN QUESTION EVEN
IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVE CORRECT...AS SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION WOULD STILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA
ATTM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND THE ASSOCIATED
THREAT LEVEL ACROSS THIS REGION IN LATER FORECASTS.
.GOSS.. 09/08/2007
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