SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042358
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-050200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN UT...SERN ID...EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN
WY...SMALL PART OF NERN NV.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665...
VALID 042358Z - 050200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 665
CONTINUES.
SCATTERED TSTMS -- A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SVR GUSTS -- CONTINUE
TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA. THREAT MAY
BRIEFLY/MRGLLY EXTEND E OF WW INTO PORTIONS FAR WRN WY...HOWEVER
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT E AND NE OF WASATCH
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSION OF WW INTO THOSE AREAS. AIR
MASS OVER N-CENTRAL UT -- S AND SE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY -- WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS WITH SFC
DEW POINTS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F AND MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG.
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL AID POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS TO
REACH SFC. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE IN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORING STORM ROTATION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES INCREASE FROM
AROUND 35 KT OVER CENTRAL UT TO NEAR 50 KT AROUND GREAT SALT LAKE.
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND STRONG WLY/NWLY WIND SHIFT AND SFC
DRYING/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BAND THAT EXTENDS AT 2345Z
FROM CASSIA COUNTY ID SWWD ACROSS BOX ELDER COUNTY UT TO NRN WHITE
PINE COUNTY NV. CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN SFC THETAE...BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE W OF THAT ACTIVITY...WITH AIR MASS
UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL/ORGANIZED SVR DEVELOPMENT.
.EDWARDS.. 09/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...LKN...
39531551 40281430 41301327 42171324 43071219 43041060
42111026 41031000 40161044 39671330
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