SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142006
NCZ000-VAZ000-142130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN NC INTO PARTS OF SRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142006Z - 142130Z
AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION...A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO...APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
ENHANCING SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS TO THE
LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN
A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY COMPONENT...NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT.
THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK WAVE...SOUTHWEST OF WINSTON
SALEM...THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BUT MAY SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
FEATURE. A MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL
IN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AND...RATHER MODEST
MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW FIELDS WILL PROBABLY MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. BUT...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
.KERR.. 09/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
36328128 36768025 37157875 37027796 37207686 36467625
36037626 35487672 35487789 35547846 35477952 35248024
35458119 35998149
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