SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142344
NCZ000-150045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142344Z - 150045Z
THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ADDITIONAL THREAT DUE TO ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...AND SLOW STORM
MOTION LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE...A WW IS UNLIKELY.
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...20
S RDU...THAT APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT WITH THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO
PER TRENDS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS LOW INTO NERN NC. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT PER RDU VAD ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AND LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES /0-1 KM 250-280 M2/S2/
THAT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. GIVEN THESE FACTORS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS IN A SMALL AREA
EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MARTIN/BERTIE COUNTIES.
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
.PETERS.. 09/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
35237890 35417919 35897870 36097820 36147722 35867693
35677690 35457732 35327780 35227834
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