SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181916
KSZ000-NEZ000-182045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181916Z - 182045Z
SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MCD AREA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AHEAD OF DRYLINE/TROUGH WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. HEATING OF THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER -- BEHIND
AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHIFTING INTO ERN KS/ERN NEB -- HAS
RESULTED IN AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS NEB WHILE THE DRYLINE/TROUGH
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD...AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE CROSSING NERN CO.
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME HINTS AT DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THIS BOUNDARY ARE BECOMING EVIDENT...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS PER AREA PROFILERS SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE
ROTATION.
.GOSS.. 09/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
40589957 40869907 40979824 40079739 39009770 37639857
37559988 39429957
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