SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191912
KSZ000-COZ000-192145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E CNTRL CO THROUGH WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191912Z - 192145Z
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP NWD
TOWARD W CNTRL AND NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN CO EWD THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL KS.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING WITH 60S
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS ALONG A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON PERIPHERY OF REMNANT MORNING CLOUDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 30 TO 35 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT INTO WRN KS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WITH 40 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW STRATUS
IS MIXING OUT...AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NWD WITH TIME.
STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY
DEVELOP NWD WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
.DIAL.. 09/19/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
37959937 37660083 37950262 39350200 39390092 38739944
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