SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200116
SDZ000-NDZ000-200245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...SRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200116Z - 200245Z
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
MOVING INTO SRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SD IS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED
BY THE RUC OVER SW TO CNTRL SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN
NATURE. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO 15C/ AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
.BROYLES.. 09/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
44739860 45069990 45620088 46130104 46600077 46850028
46939974 46899912 46679821 46309754 45869707 45349706
44889734 44719802
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