SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272301
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-280030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690...691...
VALID 272301Z - 280030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
690...691...CONTINUES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FORMIDABLE IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD AT
ABOUT 30 KTS ACROSS WRN PA. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE INTO ERN PA AND CNTRL/ERN NY THIS
EVENING...SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. STRONGER STORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING WHERE THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE
ALONG/JUST E OF THE CREST OF THE APLCNS NEWD INTO THE MOHAWK AND NRN
HUDSON VLYS. HERE...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG
HEATING THIS AFTN BOOSTED MUCAPES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE.
STRONGEST BULK SHEAR WAS TIED TO THE ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NY ATTM. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO OVER ERN NY INTO CNTRL VT/NH FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HAIL AND DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS. FARTHER S...VERTICAL SHEAR WAS WEAKER...BUT WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER AND ESTABLISHED COLD POOLS GAINING MOMENTUM DOWNHILL INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS MAY AUGMENT DMGG MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
IT APPEARS THE SVR WX THREATS HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
.RACY.. 09/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
39397766 40537762 41827729 43417482 44617280 45457006
44736982 43137209 41907377 40297616
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