MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038

ACUS11 KWNS 300231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300231
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-300400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO AND WRN KS THROUGH CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694...

VALID 300231Z - 300400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WW 694. SEVERE THREAT EAST OF WW 694 APPEARS MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY
KS PORTION...AND STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST OF WW.

LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EARLIER
THIS EVENING NOW EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL NEB SWWD TROUGH NWRN KS INTO
EXTREME SERN CO. ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOW ECHOES CONTINUE WITHIN THE LINE. ACTIVITY IS MOVING ENEWD AT
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AND SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF CURRENT
WW BY 0330Z. STORMS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION FARTHER EAST TOWARD CNTRL KS. GIVEN A MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH EWD EXTENT INTO KS AND NEB...IT
APPEARS THAT STRONGER FORCING WILL BECOME NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE IS
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NEB...AND STRONGER FORCING WITH MAIN VORT MAX
NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NEB LATER TONIGHT
ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST LONGER IN NEB PORTION OF WW
THAN IN KS.

.DIAL.. 09/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

42289917 40449983 38610073 37190201 37120259 37660281
39100207 40320191 41890175 42800095 42900003

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