SWODY1
SPC AC 240024
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SERN STATES...
18Z NAM-WRF/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING CLOSED
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER ERN AR/NRN LA EARLY THIS EVENING...
TRACKING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE SERN STATES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM WRN
NC/SC THROUGH ERN GA TO NRN FL AND THE WEST CENTRAL FL COAST BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ABOVE THE
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD AND
THUS MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS EVENING.
A FEW WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM NERN GA TOWARD WRN SC/WRN NC
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
PROCESS SHOULD ALLOW THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE
TO WANE.
.PETERS.. 10/24/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment