SWODY1
SPC AC 220058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
..NRN GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR
SERN LA EWD TO JUST S OF THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.
TROPICAL AIR MASS AND SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO
THE NRN CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AS SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH. BY 12Z
MONDAY...THIS COASTAL FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN LA EWD TO FAR
SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SECOND BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN LA TO CENTRAL MS. REGIONAL RADARS/
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS HAD BEGUN TO
SPREAD INLAND WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LLJ/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WITH THE LLJ MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.
..SRN PLAINS...
SRN EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO NERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY
12Z MONDAY. STRONGEST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONT. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED THIS SCENARIO ALREADY TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL OK. AN
EXPANSION IN TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE INTO SERN KS/WRN MO THIS
EVENING AND MORE LIKELY SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF TX WHERE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.
.PETERS.. 10/22/2007
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