SWODY1
SPC AC 201243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AS STRONG LOW CENTER
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE PAC NW...WHILE PRECEEDING
CLOSED-LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD OVER ERN CANADA. STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND GULF COAST
REGION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT CENTRAL/SRN FL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED OVER PORTIONS OF FL AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...AND INVOF COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES TODAY.
..FL...
WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP MOIST PLUME WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTHS OVER FL TODAY...AS 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE H7-H5 AND H85-H5
LAPSE RATES REMAIN AOB 6 C/KM. ALTHOUGH 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT BRIEF ORGANIZATION WITH STRONGER STORMS...DEEP MOIST
LAYER AND RESULTANT WEAKENED LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
..NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS AOB -26C/ WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE AREA OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER...HOWEVER MUCAPE SHOULD STILL
SUFFICE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/20/2007
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