SWODY1
SPC AC 291626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2007
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN ORE/WESTERN NV...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CA COAST...CENTERED NEAR 33N/126.5W AS
OF 16Z. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA AND SOUTHERN ORE/WESTERN NV TODAY. SIMILAR TO
12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...LATEST GPS-IPW DATA INDICATES A
STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND WEST OF
THE SIERRAS IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. AS THE UPPER COLD POCKET /AROUND
-18C AT 500 MB/ GRADUALLY APPROACHES...SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM WILL EXIST ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. GRADUAL MOISTENING/SOME HEATING WILL SUPPORT
POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. MODEST TOTAL BUOYANCY/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL LARGELY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...BUT IT APPEARS THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA MOUNTAINS.
..FL...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DEEPLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
VIGOR...AND THUS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
.GUYER/HALES.. 10/29/2007
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