SWODY1
SPC AC 231951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN GA...
..THE SOUTHEAST...
BROKEN/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES MOVING EWD...NOW
CROSSING THE AL/GA BORDER AND CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. WHILE MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ IS EVIDENT OVER SERN
GA AND INTO SRN SC...AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION REMAINS ONLY MINIMALLY UNSTABLE -- PER LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AND OVERALL LACK OF LIGHTNING. CONVERSELY...STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS INVOF THE FRONT...WHILE MUCH WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT EXISTS WITHIN MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN SERN GA AND
VICINITY.
GIVEN THIS...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS NRN GA. IN THIS AREA...SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/ORGANIZED STORMS...AND AN
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/POTENTIALLY-DAMAGING WINDS NEAR
STRONGER STORM CORES OR SMALL-SCALE BOWS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WHICH INCREASES/VEERS WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST
ACROSS A PORTION OF NRN GA...AND LESSER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
OVER A LARGER/SURROUNDING AREA OF THE SERN CONUS.
.GOSS.. 10/23/2007
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