SWODY1
SPC AC 230048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
LA...ERN MS...WRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
..CENTRAL GULF STATES...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH
SHOULD BE EVOLVING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AS IT APPROACHES ERN OK/ERN TX
AND WRN AR/NWRN LA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN EWD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE OH/TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
IN NRN MS WILL TRACK NEWD WHILE TRAILING PART OF COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND SWD ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS OF 40-50 KT ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL ALLOW RICH MOISTURE TO SPREAD FARTHER
INLAND TONIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW LCLS AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT. SSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD RESULTING IN
INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS BOTH ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. TORNADO
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SERN LA INTO
SERN MS/SWRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD
FARTHER NWD INTO EAST CENTRAL MS/WRN AL TONIGHT ALONG AXIS OF LLJ
WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED ROTATING
STORMS.
.PETERS.. 10/23/2007
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