SWODY1
SPC AC 201606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CNTRL/SRN FL...
NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE /AS DEPICTED ON 12Z RAOBS/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH
AS LARGE ERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.
..PACIFIC NW THROUGH NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
POCKETS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH VERY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /FROM -25 TO -30C AT 500 MB/...WILL RESULT IN
WEAK INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
..WRN NEB/SRN SD...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ALONG WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND FOCUSED
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHLY
ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. NAM/NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PARCELS MAY ROOT LOW ENOUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS TO ALLOW
SUPERCOOLED WATER GROWTH AND CHARGE SEPARATION. WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...ONLY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
.GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/20/2007
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