SWODY1
SPC AC 231611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2007
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A
SMALL PART OF AL/GA...
..AL/GA AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY BEFORE STALLING OVER MS TONIGHT AS A NRN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BYPASSES THE MS VALLEY LOW
TO THE N. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE AL/TN BORDER WILL MOVE
EWD/ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EWD FROM CENTRAL AL TO ERN GA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ IS PRESENT IN
THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF AL/GA...WHILE 12Z
SOUNDINGS REVEALED RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM.
AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF GA
AND E CENTRAL/SE AL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL LARGELY
LAG TO THE W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWS
ITS EWD MOVEMENT. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE NW EDGE OF
THE MODEST INSTABILITY /SE OF THE SURFACE LOW/...WHERE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND SRH COULD EXCEED 35 KT AND 200 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY.
HERE...SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE BAND OF FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR
TWO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.
.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/23/2007
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