SWODY1
SPC AC 210028
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2007
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG JETS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS SPREADING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS/MID MO VALLEYS...WITH A GREATER SWD SURGE OF THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
..CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN STATES...CONTINUATION OF
STRONG FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF MID
LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT TSTM THREAT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM ERN ID/UT INTO PARTS OF WY AND
WRN/CENTRAL CO. FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN UT AND WRN CO
WILL ALSO ENHANCE TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA.
..WRN NEB/SRN SD...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE...
ALONG WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND FOCUSED ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM OF WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHLY ELEVATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY...ONLY A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ANTICIPATED.
..FL...
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS STABILIZATION OVER LAND IN
CENTRAL/SRN FL SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT
THE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN STRONGER OVER THE WARMER WATERS. TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED ALONG THE CENTRAL/SWRN FL COAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE GULF BY ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NWD OVER THE FAR ERN GULF.
.PETERS.. 10/21/2007
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