SWODY1
SPC AC 221945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA...MS AND
AL...
..CENTRAL GULF STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER ERN LA INTO WCNTRL MS HAS DESTABILIZED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO A NARROW ZONE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL
INTO THE MID 80S IN THIS REGION WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED TO ROUGHLY 7-7.5 C/KM. NEEDLESS TO SAY SFC PARCELS ARE
BUOYANT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FREELY CONVECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BOTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FROM SERN LA INTO SRN MS. LATEST THINKING IS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF LA INTO MS
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY
SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER
NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING WITHIN RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
MORE DISCRETE STRUCTURES.
.DARROW.. 10/22/2007
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