DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

475
WOUS40 KWNS 171644
PWOSPC
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY
AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF
WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE BROAD
AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE
STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND JET
STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..RACY/CORFIDI.. 10/17/2007

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